On Saturday, media houses shared their projections of 2024 election results. While 10 exit polls suggested that BJP led NDA will fail to score 400 seats, as vowed by PM Modi in one his addresses – “ab ki baar 400 paar”, these three exit polls namely- India Today-My Axis India, India TV-CNX, and News24-Todays Chanakya – have predicted 400 plus seats for the NDA.
Meanwhile, Congress has changed its mind as it announced on Saturday its decision to participate in exit poll debates. Earlier, on Friday the Congress party had said it would not participate in debates during exit polls, stating, “The purpose of any debate should be to inform the people.” This prompted BJP to take a jibe at the party, as party chief JP Nadda said, “Congress’s decision to not participate in Exit Polls, on the eve of Phase 7 polling, is an unequivocal confirmation that the Congress has conceded the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.”
The BJP-NDA tide on 4th June?
BJP candidates in the South seem to have performed better this year compared to the 2019 General Elections when NDA barely scraped a seat to its name. The BJP-led NDA alliance has made some significant gains in the Southern states this term. Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana and Andhra Pradesh have managed to dedicate some major seats to NDA.
Unlike 2019, despite DMK dominance in the state of Tamil Nadu, BJP will likely secure 4 seats. Painting a similar picture in Telangana, BJP is expected to come neck to neck with its main opposition Congress favoring from the decrease in popularity of Bharat Rashtra Samithi (a once dominant party in the state). BJP will be benefiting from its alliance with JD(S) and TDP-Jana Sena Party as it will secure 20+ seats in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh each.
If the South seems to favor the NDA, the Northern States have a different fate for NDA. States like Maharashtra, Bihar and Punjab projected the lead being taken by Congress-led INDIA alliance. Even the north-eastern states like Mizoram and Nagaland are slated to dedicate their seats to INDIA. Sikkim and Meghalaya projected their seats in favor of local parties. The crisis-stricken state of Manipur will also witness the dominion of a regional party, since BJP and Congress poor governance have upset the state’s citizens.
Nonetheless, Uttrakhand, Chattisgarh, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan and Gujarat will be swept by the BJP-led NDA.
INDIA’s waning enthusiasm remains wishful
Given the enthusiasm with which the INDIA alliance conducted their campaigns, they expected to reap sweeter fruits than what is being projected by the exit polls. Not one exit poll predicted INDIA alliance win ahead of June 4 election results. Their numbers range between 152-201, insufficient to win the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
But despite the disappointing poll predictions, the party maintains a brave face as they wish for a miracle to happen on June 4 when the results are officially out. On Saturday, the INDIA alliance members had an informal discursive meeting over the preparations leading to counting day and a show of solidarity irrespective of poll predictions at the Congress President Kharge’s residence.
The leaders of INDIA parties are informally meeting today to take stock of the preparations leading up to the counting day.
The fight is still not over, and the leaders and workers of all the parties are extremely alert.
I thank each one of them for their esteemed presence.… pic.twitter.com/EjcpNAktlT
— Mallikarjun Kharge (@kharge) June 1, 2024
Taking a dig at the poll predictions which have collectively shown BJP-led NDA winning with a thumping majority, Congress MP Shashi Tharoor said that “Exit polls are deeply unscientific”. “Last year, the majority of exit polls got the results wrong in Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. What we are interested in is the real poll- the votes of the public are going to decide our political future,” he added, reminding everyone of the failed poll results in 2019 Lok Sabha Elections.
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Exit polls: Expectations v/s Reality
Predicting poll results is not as easy as it seems. The numbers for each party are not easy to decode as voter sentiments are rather fickle. In 2014 and 2019, exit polls were accurate enough to predict NDA’s win in both elections but they failed to estimate the true extent of the Modi Wave which swept the country back then.
The 2014 exit polls projected an average of 282 seats for NDA and 110 seats for UPA, when in reality NDA won 336 seats, with BJP securing 282 seats alone and UPA securing 60 seats, out of which 44 were won by Congress. Poll predictions in 2019 improved their accuracy. NDA was slated to win 327 seats and UPA, 101 seats. But the official results once agains stunned the poll predictions, as NDA managed to win 352 seats, BJP alone securing 303 seats and UPA with only 91 seats; a still better prediction than 2014.
However, in both the terms, News 24- Chanakya and India Today Axis successfully made the closest call to actual poll results. In 2014, News 24 predicted 340 seats for NDA, closest to 336 seats actually won. Similarly in 2019, it predicted 350 seats for NDA, closest to 352 actually won.
Nevertheless, the exit polls have not completely failed in their predictions and truly represent the fate of India’s elections.
“400 paar”: A rare occasion
In the history of Indian elections, only once has a party has garnered 400+ seats. In 1984, the Congress party, alone, broke a record with winning 414 seats in the Lok sabha out of the total of 541 seats. This historical event was followed by the unfortunate assassination of then-Prime Minister Indira Gandhi.
Ever since that period, no party or alliance has ever managed to cross the 400 limit. BJP led NDA had managed to come remarkably close to the number with securing 353 seats out of the total 542 seats. With this year’s poll predictions, what lays ahead for NDA will be officially disclosed on June 4 and whether it manages to secure its first 400+ seats target.
